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The Scheffer climate index is a reliable predictor of above-ground decay hazard across climate zones.

Under review — the register is reading the literature and will publish a conclusion once directional evidence has been indexed.

In plain terms

The published record leans towards this, with exceptions. The evidence is still too thin to lean on for a decision.

This sentence is generated from the same numbers shown below — consensus share, confidence band and the number of indexed studies. Open any section to see exactly how it was reached.

Version 8 · WI-EV v1.0.0 · last swept 2026-09-19

Evidence Score

44

0–100, rule-based

Confidence

Low confidence

Too few, too old or too conflicting sources to specify from.

Consensus

73%

2 support · 1 contradict · 27 unclassified · 3 directionally assessed

Studies

30

1986–2026

Confidence is limited most by volume of evidence (2/30).

Behind the answer

All of the data, one click away.

Nothing here is hidden — it is folded, so the answer stays readable. Open any section to see exactly how the numbers were produced.

How the score is built6 weighted components, 44/100 total
Volume of evidence

3 directional studies, weighted by grade.

2/30
Study quality

Mean evidence grade 56/100 across the pool.

14/25
Agreement

73% of weighted directional evidence agrees.

9/20
Peer review

93% published in peer-reviewed venues.

9/10
Recency

Median publication year 2020.

7/10
Reproducibility

67% resolvable by DOI and independently checkable.

3/5
Where the literature disagrees1 conflicting pair, with the likely reason
Supports

Numerical study on the effects of macro climate and detailing on the relative decay hazard of Norway spruce

Wood Material Science & Engineering · 2019 · Grade B · Peer-reviewed

Two decay models across 300 European sites generally showed strong similarity to the Scheffer climate index.

Contradicts

Wood decay hazard in Spain using the Scheffer index: proposal for an improvement

European Journal of Wood and Wood Products · 2016 · Grade C · Peer-reviewed

The title proposes improving the Scheffer index for Spain, indicating the existing method is insufficient across that climate setting.

Why they differ

Different evidence grades (B vs C), so they do not carry equal weight. Published in different venues (Wood Material Science & Engineering vs European Journal of Wood and Wood Products).

How the consensus moved over timeConsensus recomputed using only the evidence published up to each year
YearPublishedCumulativeSupportContradictConsensus
198611000%
198912000%
200013000%
200914000%
20112610100%
20131710100%
20141810100%
20151910100%
20161101150%
20171111150%
20192132173%
20206192173%
20213222173%
20222242173%
20242262173%
20252282173%
20262302173%
Revision history7 published revisions
  1. v81 new study indexed.2026-08-25 · score 44 · 73%
  2. v72 new studies indexed.2026-08-16 · score 44 · 73%
  3. v62 new studies indexed, Evidence Score -1 to 44.2026-08-09 · score 44 · 73%
  4. v5Evidence Score +10 to 45, consensus 50% → 73%.2026-08-08 · score 45 · 73%
  5. v43 new studies indexed, Evidence Score -1 to 35.2026-08-08 · score 35 · 50%
  6. v38 new studies indexed, Evidence Score -18 to 36, consensus 0% → 50%.2026-08-05 · score 36 · 50%
  7. v214 new studies indexed, Evidence Score +54 to 54.2026-08-04 · score 54 · 0%
Every indexed record30 studies with stance, grade and citation count

Index

2026 · Climate and Natural Hazard Risks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-44-327368-1.00030-6

The generic title and missing abstract provide no evidence about Scheffer index reliability or above-ground decay.

Neutral

Grade C · 0 citations

Peer-reviewed

ESICM LIVES 2025

2025

The record provides no wood-decay, climate-index, or building-performance evidence.

Neutral

Grade C · 0 citations

Peer-reviewed

Russian forests and climate change

Leskinen, Pekka, Lindner, Marcus, Verkerk, Pieter Johannes et al. · 2020 · What science can tell us · doi:10.36333/wsctu11

The review addresses forests and climate change, not Scheffer-index prediction of above-ground wood decay.

Neutral

Grade C · 87 citations

Not peer-reviewed

Wood decay hazard in Spain using the Scheffer index: proposal for an improvement

Juan Fernandez-Golfin, Enrique Larrumbide, Antonio Ruano et al. · 2016 · European Journal of Wood and Wood Products · doi:10.1007/s00107-016-1036-z

The title proposes improving the Scheffer index for Spain, indicating the existing method is insufficient across that climate setting.

Contradicts

Grade C · 15 citations

Peer-reviewed

Signature Wood Modifications Reveal Decomposer Community History

Jonathan S. Schilling, Justin T. Kaffenberger, Feng Jin Liew et al. · 2015 · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0120679

The study concerns fungal-community effects on woody litter decomposition, not climate-index prediction of above-ground structural decay.

Neutral

Grade B · 54 citations

Peer-reviewed

Local map of climate index for decay and its usage.

Masuo HASEGAWA, Yasuo IIJIMA · 1989 · Wood Preservation · doi:10.5990/jwpa.15.157

The title describes mapping and use of a decay climate index but does not evaluate predictive reliability across climate zones.

Neutral

Grade D · 0 citations

Peer-reviewed

Stance classification is automated and reviewed against each record's own abstract; it is a reading of the literature, not a measurement. The Evidence Score is a rule-based function of indexed metadata under method WI-EV v1.0.0 and does not constitute proof of the statement.

Cite this claim

Citable, versioned, machine-readable.

Each claim keeps a permanent URL and a version number. Cite the version you read — earlier conclusions stay visible in the revision history above.

APA
WoodIntel. (2026). The Scheffer climate index is a reliable predictor of above-ground decay hazard across climate zones. (Evidence Engine WI-EV v1.0.0, claim version 8). Retrieved 2026-09-19, from https://woodintel.io/evidence/scheffer-index-decay-prediction
BibTeX
@misc{woodintel_scheffer_index_decay_prediction_2026,
  title  = {The Scheffer climate index is a reliable predictor of above-ground decay hazard across climate zones.},
  author = {{WoodIntel}},
  year   = {2026},
  note   = {Evidence Engine WI-EV v1.0.0, claim version 8, accessed 2026-09-19},
  url    = {https://woodintel.io/evidence/scheffer-index-decay-prediction}
}
Open API
curl https://woodintel.io/api/public/v1/evidence?claim=scheffer-index-decay-prediction

Returns the score, the indexed studies with stance and grade, the contradictions, the timeline and the full revision history. Open under CC BY 4.0 — API documentation.