WI-FC v1.0.0 · modelled climate-scenario projection
Predict the future.
Project modelled service life to 2030, 2050 and 2080 by applying IPCC AR6 regional SSP scenario deltas to the same WI-SL climate loads used everywhere else on WoodIntel.
Modelled service life for Siberian Larch in Coastal Scotland falls ~0% by 2050 under SSP2-4.5, before accounting for a further ±9% scenario-choice caveat.
Scenario-choice caveat: which SSP actually occurs could move this figure by a further ±9% by 2050, on top of the modelled P10–P90 band.
Now (1995–2014 baseline)
28.8y
P10 8.9 · P90 52.8
2030
28.8y
P10 8.9 · P90 52.8
+0% vs baseline · Δ0.9°C, +3% precip
2050
28.8y
P10 8.9 · P90 52.8
+0% vs baseline · Δ1.6°C, +5% precip
2080
28.7y
P10 8.9 · P90 52.8
-0.3% vs baseline · Δ2.1°C, +6% precip
Deltas applied, equations touched, limitationsFull method detail
Regional deltas applied
Region: North Europe (NEU) · Scenario: SSP2-4.5 — Middle-of-the-road pathway. Emissions plateau mid-century; the IPCC AR6 central case.
| Year | ΔT (°C) | ΔPrecip (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 0.9 | 3 |
| 2050 | 1.6 | 5 |
| 2080 | 2.1 | 6 |
Equations touched
WI-FC edits only the driving-rain, humidity and freeze-thaw climate inputs consumed by WI-SL's E2/E3/E4 load equations, then reruns E1–E13 (including the Monte Carlo propagation) unmodified via evaluate(). Base method: WI-SL v1.2.0.
Limitations
- Regional deltas are AR6 Atlas region averages (e.g. all of North Europe), applied to a single curated station. They are not a downscaled, site-specific climate projection.
- Only precipitation and temperature are perturbed. UV/irradiance and coastal chloride deposition are held at present-day values because AR6 does not publish a comparably robust regional projection for either — this understates change in practice and is a declared, not modelled, gap.
- The mapping from a temperature/precipitation delta onto the WI-SL moisture and freeze-thaw load terms (below) is a WoodIntel modelling assumption, not an IPCC figure: it has not been independently validated against observed future decay data, because none exists yet.
- SSP scenarios diverge more with time; WI-FC adds a scenario-uncertainty caveat band that widens with horizon (see `scenarioUncertaintyPct`), on top of — not instead of — the WI-SL Monte Carlo P10/P50/P90, because scenario choice is a policy question, not a statistical one.
- All outputs inherit every WI-SL and WI-CAL limitation unchanged (see /method): this layer only perturbs the climate input, it does not touch the calibration or the resistance, treatment or residual uncertainty terms.
Sources
- IPCC AR6 WGI (2021) — Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report (doi: 10.1017/9781009157896)
- IPCC AR6 WGI Interactive Atlas — Gutiérrez, J.M. et al. (2021), Atlas, in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (AR6 WGI) (doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.021)
Machine-readable: GET /api/public/v1/forecast · CC BY 4.0